Chapter 21 Worry and Persuasion
Even taking into account rising prices and currency depreciation, Wu Siyuan still feels that the price is still too expensive.
Unexpectedly, Yao Dong and Liu Zhengsi felt that the price was set too low, and the price was tentatively set just because this was the first mobile phone of the new brand [Monkey King].
Yao Dong said that consumers who can afford eight to nine thousand yuan will not care about the difference of several thousand yuan. To them, more than 9,000 yuan and more than 10,000 yuan are almost the same. [Monkey Mobile] The more expensive it is, the better it might sell! What is sold is a sense of superiority! Look at the mobile phones that other people hold are worth one or two thousand yuan, but the ones they get are only three or four thousand yuan, but the cell phone he holds is worth tens of thousands of yuan. A different feeling arises spontaneously.
Wu Siyuan hesitated and said, "Really? In the past few years, they have been talking about consumption upgrades. Under the leadership of this concept, [Yari] has given up its support for many small and medium-sized sellers. As a result, On the contrary, [Pin Xixi], which specializes in cheap prices, has become more popular."
"The current environment is so bad. Although the country can still be on its own, most consumers tend to be conservative. Will it have any impact if our mobile phones are so expensive?"
It is normal for Wu Siyuan to have this worry.
In the "China Statistical Yearbook 2021" released some time ago, according to statistics, the balance of RMB household deposits in 2020 was 92,598.6 billion yuan, an increase of 13.9%.
The reason why there is a double-digit growth in deposits in 2020 is related to the general environment. Many travels and other travels are restricted, which reduces consumption, so the money can only be saved. Another thing is that this thing makes everyone feel the importance of health, so it is necessary to save some money for emergencies.
Due to the general environment, investment has become more cautious. Those who originally wanted to buy a house did not buy it, and those who originally wanted to open a small restaurant did not open it.
Wu Siyuan believes that in this environment, consumers will be restrained in purchasing high-priced products.
With this restrained mentality, the sales of [Monkey King Mobile] will be affected.
Wu Siyuan doesn't care about profits, he really doesn't care about money now.
But he values the influence behind it.
This is the source of energy for his next time travel.
Faced with Wu Siyuan's concerns, Yao Dong had his own opinion. He said to Wu Siyuan, "Although, in the past 2020, global smartphone shipments fell by 8.8%, and China's smartphone shipments fell even more. 11.2%, but under such circumstances, Apple’s mobile phone sales bucked the trend and rose.”
“This is due to the fact that in the fourth quarter of 2020, Apple’s mobile phone shipments increased by 22.2% year-on-year to 90.1 million units, setting a record for Apple’s single-quarter shipments. In the end, Apple ranked first in the world with a market share of 23.4%. one!"
"Among this data, in the fourth quarter of 2020, Apple's mobile phone shipments in the Chinese market reached 16.7 million units, ranking second in China, with a year-on-year increase of 34.7%, and a market share of 19.3%, second only to Huawei."
“Although Apple ranked fifth in the Chinese smartphone market in 2020, it was the only mobile phone manufacturer among the top 5 to achieve positive growth. Its shipments increased by 10.1% year-on-year compared with 2019, and its annual shipments reached 36.1 million. Department, accounting for 11.1% of the market share.”
Yao Dong believes that the reason why Apple’s domestic market share has grown so fast is that price cuts have attracted consumers’ desire to buy. Another very important reason is that Huawei’s mobile phone chips are insufficient, resulting in part of its high-end market share being lost to Apple. snatch away.
Warwick has chip inventory in 2020, but in 2021, Warwick's chip pressure will become greater, mobile phone production will be seriously insufficient, and its missing market share will be taken away by other manufacturers.
Apple phones will undoubtedly take the sweetest part of the cake.
But this is without the Monkey King’s mobile phone.
There is a generational gap between the Dasheng mobile phone and the Apple mobile phone, just like the first-generation Apple mobile phone that came out.
With Nokia phones.
This is a time difference.
Apple mobile phones can seize the market of Warwick mobile phones, and Dasheng mobile phones will seize the high-end market of Apple mobile phones and Warwick mobile phones in a more aggressive manner.
Apple sold more than 36 million mobile phones in China a year.
Just one-tenth of it exceeds the current total output of [Monkey King Mobile].
Yao Dong didn't think that with such unique functions, [Monkey King Mobile] would not be able to achieve sales of three million, even if the price of [Monkey King Mobile] was as high as more than 13,000 yuan.
Wu Siyuan was convinced by Yao Dong.
He even thought that 10 million chips would be too conservative.
28nm mobile phone chips are not expensive.
In the past, a 28-nanometer mobile phone chip only cost a few yuan or more. Now, due to supply chain problems, the price has skyrocketed, and now the price is only a few dozen yuan.
Unlike those 5-nanometer chips, which are prohibitively expensive!
A research report from CSET pointed out that the cost of 12-inch wafers manufactured by Taiwan Electromechanical with 5 nanometers is approximately US$16,988, which is much higher than the cost of approximately US$9,346 with 7 nanometers.
Take the [NVIDIA] p100 GPU as an example. This product is manufactured at the 16nm node of [Taiwan Electromechanical] and contains 15.3 billion transistors, with a die area of 610 square millimeters.
If calculated according to this calculation, each 300mm diameter wafer can only produce 71.4 5nm chips, and the cost of a single chip will be as high as 238 US dollars, which is approximately 1,600 yuan.
In fact, this is only the wafer manufacturing cost, and the birth of a chip also needs to include [design cost], [packaging], and [testing cost], uu reading
The cost of this part is also very high.
According to data from a market research organization, the cost of chips has skyrocketed. The design cost of 7-nanometer chips is US$349 million, and the design cost of 5-nanometer chips will increase to US$476 million. In other words, the total cost of designing an a14 or Kirin 5nm chip may be as high as nearly 500 million US dollars.
After an investigation and estimation, the agency gave the design, packaging, and testing costs of each chip, which are US$108 and US$80 respectively.
"Treading on the Stars"
If the accuracy of this research report is high, it means that the total cost paid for a 5-nanometer chip may reach US$426, which is approximately 2,900 yuan.
Of course, different chip designs have different costs.
However, there is no doubt that the cost will increase when using 5-nanometer chips.
In order to control costs and consolidate its own advantages, Apple has taken the lead in making a cut. Last year’s basic version of the iPhone 12 is not expected to come with chargers and headphones. The purpose is to avoid excessive increases in the price of mobile phones that will make them difficult to sell.
Compared with these major manufacturers, especially Apple, Wu Siyuan found that his own costs were not worth mentioning.
[Dasheng Mobile] uses 28-nanometer mobile phone chips that have long been mature in the market and are almost eliminated. The price is already very cheap, but it uses chip stacking technology and software system optimization to achieve success. The performance is not inferior to that of 5nm-level mobile phone chips, but the cost is that the mobile phone is larger, heavier and has poorer heat dissipation.
These small problems can be completely ignored in the face of the gimmick of mankind's first real smartphone.
Wu Siyuan feels that the production of more than three million mobile phones seems a bit small?