Chapter 854 Cautious Optimism

The central bank building located on the west side of West Chang'an Avenue, Feng Yiping is familiar with but unfamiliar with.

He said he was familiar with it, because he often saw this building in various news, but whenever interest rates were cut or interest rates raised, this kind of building would always be used as the background.

Said it was a stranger, because he had never been here before.

Since the establishment of ICBC in 1984, the central bank has stripped off the business of industrial and commercial credit and savings, and has specialized in exercising the functions of a country's central bank. Bank", "Bank of Bank".

It doesn't care about money, but what it manages is the country's money, which is commonly known as the "national treasury". It is impossible for Feng Yiping and ordinary people in the past to have any intersection with this place.

The appearance of the building also attracted many people's relish, saying that it looks like a gold ingot placed on one side. Feng Yiping looked at it carefully, and really thought it was not too similar, but it was an "official hat" built by governments at all levels along the coast. The office building seems to have drawn a lot of inspiration from this building, but changed the arc into a rectangle.

A deputy director named Wen in the general office specially greeted Feng Yiping in the lobby. He knew Feng Yiping because he had seen it on the TV news. The appearance of the building, I am a little puzzled, is it possible to take a photo to commemorate the visit here?

Fortunately, Feng Yiping knew the seriousness, so it was not easy to do such a thing if he made a special trip to see the leader.

Seeing him finally walking in, Director Wen came out a few steps to welcome him, "Hi, Mr. Feng, I'm from the general office, please follow me,"

"Excuse me, Director Wen,"

Along the way, not only Director Wen, but also the young and talented people passing by in the industry were all looking at Feng Yiping, the title of the richest man was still quite attractive.

Looking at the clothes, the shirt, trousers and briefcase are really no different from the staff like them, except that they are younger. If you don't know, you will definitely think that this is a small clerk in that department.

Or, with his attire, he can also make a seamless transition if he goes outside to act as a guest of those salesmen.

Director Wen's feelings are just a little bit, young, really young! Hearing about it and seeing it with his own eyes, the feeling is different. My boy is already a junior this year, and he even has to worry about his work unit, but what about this one in front of him? It's really people comparing people, making people mad.

The president was naturally very busy. Feng Yiping waited in the reception room for more than ten minutes, seeing that there were people coming and going in and out of the office over there. He, the richest man, was sitting here, and few people really took a second look.

In other words, this unit is really awesome. If you only talk about strength, it has already faintly sat on the top of the world's central banks.

But it was even better before, and you can have an intuitive experience by just talking about it. Except for ICBC, the three high-ranking departments of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, and China Insurance Regulatory Commission are all separated from here.

Thirteen minutes later, at exactly three o'clock as agreed, the president's secretary came to invite him, "Hello Mr. Feng, please follow me,"

This is the first time Feng Yiping has entered the office of a ministerial official. Although it is not as big as his largest office, the vision is excellent. The overall decoration style is very solemn, and the office furniture is of course very high-grade. The national flag is very eye-catching.

The president was approving documents with his glasses on, "Hello, Yiping, please sit down."

If you have the opportunity to get in touch with these big people, you will find that they really don’t have any airs, because there is no need to put on any airs—the premise is that you have the opportunity to get in touch with them.

"Hello President,"

The president handed the document to the secretary, "Yiping, what do you want to drink?"

"Tea or water will do, thank you,"

"Then Longjing," said the president, who is from the south.

"Yiping, I called you here today, just to talk about some of your viewpoints in this paper," the president took out Feng Yiping's paper.

"Do you think there will be a huge bubble in the real estate market in the future? What is the basis? According to your point of view, what are the similarities and differences between the domestic real estate bubble and the Japanese real estate bubble?"

He cut to the chase and asked his own question.

This is not to ask Yu Blind, nor is it just because Feng Yiping's thesis touched on this issue. As we all know, Feng Yiping is not only a successful businessman, but also a young scholar with international reputation.

And why is the president so concerned about the bubble? Once a bubble like real estate goes wrong, it will inevitably bring disaster to banks, because both developers and home buyers have to borrow from banks.

"The reason is explained in the thesis." After experiencing the brutal and crazy development of real estate, it is relatively easy for Feng Yiping to look back and find the reason.

"However, I think that the real estate bubble in our country is very different from the real estate bubble in Japan. Our real estate bubble is quite regionally differentiated. In the first-tier cities, there will mainly be price bubbles in the future, and in the third- and fourth-tier cities, there will be mainly price bubbles. stock bubble,"

"Because of our country's specific national conditions, the main reason is that in the future, while housing prices will rise rapidly, the national economy will also grow rapidly. In the future, our population of the right age to buy houses will also increase every year. Coupled with our country's financial policies, There will not be a pessimistic outcome like Japan's big collapse," he said.

On the one hand, this is also the benefit of our country's vast territory and large population. Although the real estate bubble burst in more than one place, there was no first-tier city. The impact is not great.

"Among them, financial efforts play a very important role, so I am still cautiously optimistic about the future of the real estate market,"

It is not without benefits to say that our country started late. At least some of Japan’s experiences and lessons will definitely be absorbed by the country. The economic downturn and inflationary pressure after the appreciation of the yuan, and the excessively loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan further fueled asset bubbles....

Regarding these experiences, the president is naturally clearer than Feng Yiping, but what Feng Yiping said about the future form of the domestic real estate bubble and the few opinions are of some reference value to him.

"If even you, who hold big opinions on real estate development now, are not so pessimistic about the future, that's good news," the governor said.

With regard to the development of real estate, the domestic economic circles have yet to pour cold water on such remarks as Feng Yiping, and most of them who come out to express their views are advocating—the possibility of benefit transmission cannot be ruled out.

After all, with the development of society, there are fewer and fewer people who can be content with learning, and more and more are using various channels and means to directly link their research with economic benefits.

"The low-rent housing and affordable housing you mentioned are both taking such measures in Hong Kong and Singapore. This is indeed an effective measure to curb the rapid rise of housing prices and reduce the burden on residents," he said.

In the early days of reform and opening up, the country and Singapore established a cadre training and exchange mechanism. Many domestic cadres are familiar with some of Singapore's advanced experience.

The president did not say something here. In fact, as early as 1994, several ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Administrative Measures for the Construction of Economically Affordable Housing in Urban Areas." The face of the project appeared, but the "housing project".

As for low-rent housing, there has been little progress. Even affordable housing, which is half-planned and half-market, and somewhat profitable for local finances, has been poorly promoted in various places, let alone low-rent housing that basically relies on government investment.

"My personal immature opinion is that our country's housing security system should preferably focus on low-rent housing. After the qualification certification for the purchase of affordable housing, the problem will be more complicated,"

In fact, he said this very politely. After the development of affordable housing, many places were completely out of shape. Either they were completely reduced to the welfare of some government agencies, or the government simply left the qualification review work to the developers, resulting in many places in various places. The phenomenon of driving a good car and living in affordable housing.

Moreover, the price of affordable housing is still unaffordable for many families who need it but have low incomes.

Of course, the governor can understand the barriers in this.

However, it is one thing to understand, but it is another thing to want to change, or to be able to change.

"Besides these, do you have any other opinions?" the governor asked.

"President, you also know that this kind of problem is actually a global and systemic problem. With my current level, I can't think of any effective way to solve it,"

That being said, it's not something I should worry about.

"It's still a personal opinion. Financial institutions can play a very important role in this,"

For the governor, of course, it is about financial matters, "Whether it is exchange rate, interest rate, credit or capital market policy, it will have a great impact on the real estate market."

In the future, the country's various adjustments to the real estate market will mainly be realized through financial institutions—although most of them are useless, and sometimes they will increase even more.

"Personally, I think the most important point is how our financial institutions can effectively respond to the future international pressure to promote the appreciation of the renminbi,"

"If you can't withstand the pressure and let the renminbi appreciate, it will increase the asset attractiveness of the renminbi just like Japan signed the Plaza Accord,"

"On the other hand, the expectation of RMB appreciation will attract a large influx of hot money from around the world. It is not ruled out that these hot money will also enter the real estate market in search of arbitrage opportunities,"

Later, real estate developers and governments in many cities were unwilling to lower housing prices because they had great expectations for international hot money.

This is a very real problem. With the rapid growth of exports and trade surplus, the international community has already called for RMB appreciation.

The governor nodded, "What about the others?"

Feng Yiping shyly said, "No more,"

Besides, I just said, does it work?

Can't the real estate problem be solved? In fact, for the country, it is not difficult, but it is not difficult. If you invest several trillion yuan to build a large number of affordable housing, housing prices will skyrocket like wild horses? No wonder!

"Not bad, not bad, still very insightful," the president drank tea and praised Feng Yiping, "You not only have a better grasp of the overall situation than the doctoral students I lead, you are also more comprehensive and objective than some well-known scholars,"

"President, do you appreciate the award, the old dean...?" Feng Yiping asked, mentioning an old man they all knew, and immediately felt a slip of the tongue.

The president can be said to be the direct disciple of the old dean. When he was a part-time graduate student at Tsinghua University in the 1980s, the old dean personally taught his classes.

But the old dean is not an ordinary old man. Even if the leader of such a senior official retires, his current situation must be kept secret, so how can he ask casually?

"Hehe, he's in good health," the president said with a smile, and he didn't want to discuss this issue too much. "I heard that you are looking for a large loan?"

It can be regarded as hearing you ask this question, it is really worthwhile for me to come here today.

"Yes, we have reached a preliminary agreement with ICBC, and they are reviewing our mainland assets,"

"What's the purpose?"

"I am planning to acquire a listed company in the United States, and I am very optimistic about the future development of this company,"

"It's good to have this idea. If it goes well, this will be the largest overseas merger and acquisition of our domestic company. Although I know that you must have carefully planned, I still want to remind you that such a big Projects must be carefully planned.”

"We already have a series of action guidelines, and we will build a very professional team in the future. However, at present, the bank's financing support is the most critical," Feng Yiping almost asked, President, what do you do about the loan? If you look at it, come.

But the governor naturally understood what he meant, "Same as your previous attitude, I am also cautiously optimistic about this loan,"

Feng Yiping was really happy to hear that. Such a person can care about such things as him, and can say such things, which means that this matter is still very promising.

"If you say that, President, then this is also good news," he repeated what the President said just now.

At this moment, the secretary came in and reminded in a low voice, "The meeting at the International Department is waiting for you,"

Feng Yiping hurriedly stood up, "Then I won't disturb your work,"

The president looked at his watch, "Give Yiping my business card," he said to the secretary.

"If you have any questions in the future, you can contact me directly and send an email,"

"Thank you!" Feng Yiping was very happy. He rarely dealt with banks before, but now he accidentally established contact with the president in charge of the bank. This is a very powerful channel.

…………

At the same time, Feng Yiping's thesis has spread rapidly, and some people in the China Real Estate Association are condemning Feng Yiping with righteous indignation.

ps: A group has been established, 454, 231, 228, everyone is welcome to come and give more valuable opinions. I look forward to having the opportunity to communicate with you!